12-50 flu shots to prevent one flu

Eugen G Tarnow  December 9 2017 08:41:58 AM

By Eugen Tarnow, Ph.D.
Avalon Business Systems, Inc.
http://AvalonAnalytics.com

Every year we are told by our health professionals and the media to get the flu vaccine.

What might be the statistics of the flu shot?

According to my average of CDC numbers the average efficacy is 42% (2005-2016, not including 2009).  The flu shot gives you a 42% lower chance of getting the flu than if you did not get the shot.  

The chance of getting the flu is not that high, it is 5-20% according to WebMD.  

So if you do pay for the flu shot you lower the probability of getting the flu from 5-20% to 3-12%.

In the best case scenario you wait twelve years to prevent one flu, in the worst case scenario 50 years.  12-50 shots to prevent one flu.

I used the term "my average" - as if averages would be different depending upon the person doing the calculation.  It turns out they are.

CDC states, contrary to their own numbers, that "recent studies show vaccine reduces the risk of flu illness by about 50%  to 60%".  50-60% is larger than 42% and there is actually no way to get the average into the 50-60% range - no matter how many or few years you use (as long as you go chronologically from the 2016 number).  WebMD claimes that CDC states a 70-90% efficacy.

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